Economic Survey of India 2016-17:Volume 02 : With discussion by Economic Survey India

Author:Economic Survey India [India, Economic Survey]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Mobilism
Publisher: UNKNOWN
Published: 2017-08-15T00:00:00+00:00

General Mining Manufacturing Electricity 2004-05 2011-12 2004-05 2011-12 2004-05 2011-12 2004-05 2011-12 1.3 4.8 4.0 4.0 -0.8 3.6 6.1 6.1 2.3 3.9 8.4 14.8 2.0 3.0 5.7 5.7 0.0 4.8 4.7 5.8 2012-13 1.1 3.3 -2.3 -5.3 2013-14 -0.1 3.4 -0.6 -0.1 2014-15 2.8 4.0 1.5 -1.4 2015-16 2.4 3.4 2.2 4.3 2016-17 0.7 5.0 2.2 5.4 Source: CSO

8.5 With the new base year of 2011-12, there has been an upward revision in IIP growth rates (Figure 1). The two series do not move in the same direction and show a contrasting trend in 2016-17 growth rates. In 2016-17 Q1, the new series showed a rise in growth to 7.8 per cent, while the old series showed deceleration to 0.7 per cent. The new series captured the slowdown in industrial growth in Q3 and Q4 post demonetization, while the old series showed an acceleration in growth in the same period. The improved data is a reflection of expansion of the item basket, the frame of factories and revision of weights in the new IIP series.

8.6 Divergence between GVA (Manufacturing) and IIP (Manufacturing) has reduced with the new series as can be observed from Figure 2. It is also important to note that the difference between GVA (Manufacturing) and IIP (Manufacturing) has reduced to about 3 percentage points as compared to 8 percentage points earlier.

Figure 1. Comparison of growth rates between Index of Industrial Production (General) 2004-05 and Index of Industrial Production (General) 2011-12

7.88

7

6 5.3 5 4.44.0 4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3 2.9

2 2.82.4

1 1.10.7 1.1 0 1.9

-1 -0.1-0.9

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17:Q1 2016-17:Q2 2016-17:Q3 2016-17:Q4

IIP (General) 2004-05 IIP (General) 2011-12

Figure 2. Comparison of Gross Value Added (Manufacturing) and Index of Industrial Production (Manufacturing)

12

10 8 7.9

6 4.8 4

2 -0.1 0 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 -2 GVA_Mnfg IIP_Mnfg(2004-05) IIP_Mnfg(2011-12)

Source: CSO

Performance of The eighT core indusTries

8.7 The industries covered in the Index of Eight Core are namely Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement and Electricity. The Base Year of the Index of Eight Core Industries has of the Index of Eight Core Industries has 12 from April, 2017 in line with the new base year of Index of Industrial Production (IIP). The Index of Eight Core Industries growth during 2016-17 was 4.8 per cent as compared to 3 per cent in 2015-16 (Table 4). The first two months of 2017-18 has shown a growth of 3.2 per cent. The revised Eight Core Industries have a combined weight of 40.3 per cent in the IIP. Performance of some of the critical sectors is discussed in detail in the chapter subsequently.

Table 4. Growth Rates of Eight Core Industries (Base Year 2011-12) (per cent)

Sector Weight 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Coal 10.3 3.2 1.0 8.0 4.8 3.2 Crude Oil 8.9 -0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -1.4 -2.5 Natural Gas 6.8 -14.4 -12.9 -5.3 -4.7 -1.0 Refinery Products 28.0 7.2 1.4 0.2 4.9 4.9 Fertilizers 2.6 -3.3 1.5 1.3 7.0 0.2 Steel 17.9 7.9 7.3 5.1 -1.3 10.7 Cement 5.4 7.5 3.7 5.9 4.6 -1.

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